Demand Forecasting for OEM Sales and Retail Planning

Problem and Context

A large automotive sales organization needed more reliable forecasts for order intake and retail demand to support production, logistics, marketing, and pricing decisions. Planning requirements varied significantly by horizon, ranging from short-term market steering to long-term volume planning. Retail figures also lagged order intake, making direct forecasting difficult and creating risk for inconsistent planning assumptions. Existing methods, including expert estimates and simple extrapolations, provided a starting point but were not sufficient across all channels, product lines, and forecast horizons.

+36%

improvement in forecast accuracy versus the previous baseline

1–18 months

forecast horizon covered for steering and volume planning

+14%

increase in volume target achievement

Approach and Solution

The project started with baseline forecasting approaches to create a transparent reference point for improvement. Building on this foundation, tailored forecasting models were developed for different channels, product lines, and planning horizons, while order intake and retail were handled separately but linked to ensure consistent volume planning. The solution balanced forecast quality with business transparency so stakeholders could better understand the drivers behind changing demand patterns. It was embedded in a productive environment and supported by business-facing visualizations for both expert users and decision-makers.

Results and Impact

The initiative improved forecast performance versus baseline approaches and strengthened consistency between order intake and retail planning. Combining advanced forecasting with business expertise delivered the strongest results and provided a more reliable basis for operational and mid-term decision-making. The solution also increased transparency into demand drivers, helping teams better understand channel-specific patterns while supporting production, logistics, marketing, and pricing decisions with a more structured planning approach.

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Steffen Illig

Partner, Project Manager and Expert for Data Analytics

steffen.illig@5v-strategy.com

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